So at the tournament half way mark, looks as if 6 wins will guarantee a semis spot, and it is very unlikely a team could qualify with less than 5 wins, barring some very weird combination of results.
India, New Zealand and South Africa look all but nailed on for a semis spot. The final spot is theoretically up for grabs by any of the remaining teams, although strangely enough Australia, despite their weak start, are best placed. Even England aren't out of it, but need to win all five of their remaining games to realistically have a hope of qualifying. Hard to see that happening.
I can't quite work out just how England are doing so spectacularly badly. The batting has just been abject - all time top performers like Buttler and Bairstow have just been absent without trace. Only two batters have passed 130 runs in 4 games, and one of them (Malan) scored nearly all his runs in one innings. Root's the only one who's shown any degree of consistency, but he can't do everything.
This article does help make some sense of it - when you see how little ODI cricket England have played in the run up to this tournament, is it any wonder they're undercooked?
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/icc- ... up-1404965