The Moeen Mystery

[The Professor]

So.....

Do England persist with Moeen? Seemingly not offering much with bat nor ball in the shorter form of the game but yet is seemingly the vice vice captain as was proved in the Ireland games.

[bigfluffylemon]

In theory, a player like Mo should be valuable to England's limited overs efforts. In practice, his performances have been middling to poor for a while. He was in the winning world cup squad, but didn't contribute enormous amounts with bat or ball - one good innings apiece, and a few reasonably tidy middle overs of spin otherwise in other games.

He's going to be 36 by the time the next World Cup rolls around, so it's hard to see him in the squad for that, even if he rediscovers some form in the short term. As such, I suggest time to move on and build for future tournaments.

[alfie]

As the Prof points out , he is the vice captain at present which suggests they still value him and are keen to see him back on track. Even in this latest game he was brought on to bowl the second over - though then not used again - and given the opportunity to bring the chase home being sent in ahead of Billings...sadly with no good result.

So clearly they want to give him every chance.

I'm not at all sure this is helping him. He is such a confidence player that each failure is likely to just knock him further down...reckon they'd be far better to let him try to find some form at county level. Doesn't mean "close the file" on him...still time for him to come back ; though of course no certainty he will. England are not overburdened with spin options so a functional Moeen would still be an asset - but in his current state he isn't that.

36 next World Cup isn't impossible for a spinner. But whether he could make it back would seem to depend on (A) How much he wants it ; and (B) What the other candidates do while he's (hopefully) regaining his mojo.

So not writing him off ; but afraid I am a lot less optimistic about his chances than I used to be.

[sussexpob]

Again, like I said with his 50 over output, you cant look at a guys stats and compare them with his peers without narrowing down those stats specifically to what can be achieved by people asked to mirror his role in the side. Its easy to look at Moeen and say 'well he averages 15, which is terrible compared to x,y,z' but how many of these batsman are coming in most of the time at 7? You can only really compare Moeen to those 7s. England's current average 5 wicket drop occurs on ball 5 of the 18th over, going on their RR and net averages in the last 5 years. Which means that the 7 has roughly 7 balls per match to bat out. Moeen averages 8.6 balls per innings at 7, so the expectation and actual seems about right.

At this point what he averages means pretty much zero. Its all about SR, how many he can score. Very rarely is a T20 team bowled out, so he just needs to hit out. And if we compare Moeen's SR to those achieved by other teams past the point of that 5th wicket falling, you find only NZ as a team have a SR over 130 (Moeen is 131 at this point)..... after Englands team effort of 126SR, no team passes 120. So in actual fact, Moeens ability to hit at the end of an innings is a significant advantage at the end over pretty much anything that most teams can achieve.

Then you look at his bowling. The current 5 year average when you remove all the minnows and keep what Id consider the core 9 test teams performance, the average econ rate over 20 overs is 8.2. Moeen manages 8.57, which is above average. But then again you would expect a 5th bowler/all rounder to perform worse than specialists. And England also dont exactly have a great bowling attack, so you have to compare him to other England bowlers to see if he get into the team.

Englands average econ rate is 8.64.... so Moeen is below the average for the team. Comparing him to those currently in the team;

Curran - 9.25
Mahmood - 10.92
Rashid - 7.5
Jordan - 8.79
Gregory - 7.3* ( Only bowled in 3 out of 7 possible innings. As the second batting allrounder, his SR is 104 in 7 games and average of 5, which is drastically lower than Moeen)

Out of players who might be expected to play in a full strength squad
Stokes - 8.82
Wood - 9.67
Archer - 7.25 ( only one game)

So its hard to see from an all round perspective who exactly has the capacity to replace him. Hes better than most bowling options in econ, and about as good a 7 in terms of what he can do than most in world cricket.

The key is form. At the moment its understandable that his career record makes him an essential pick, but whether or not he can still perform to the level he has done in the last 5 years is the true question. But for that to be answered, we need a lot bigger sample than one game. Hes too important to the team just to drop him and expect another late order hitter to suddenly start producing at stupid high levels, whilst also sending down overs that are under the rate.

[sussexpob]

Just to put that into perspective, if England were to drop Moeen and were to get a bog standard average performer from any other team below Moeen's current level of hitting, the SR loss is equivalent to 2 runs. Moeens 8.6 ball average occupation of the crease per game equates to 11.2 runs. The average is 9.2.

So in order for this gamble to pay off, youd need a bowler who conceeds 2 runs less per innings.... or one that has an econ pretty much 8 runs per over dead. This is 0.2 runs per over less than the global average in the last 5 years, and currently better than all but one player in the England team whos taken more than a single wicket in T20.

Its not so easy to find a more efficient player, is it? Because if England had a proven bowler capable of going 8 econ flat, he'd already be in the team.

[sussexpob]

One player that could be an interesting prospect to fill those shoes is David Willey, who strikes post 130 figures and bowls under that 8.2 global average. In terms of potential on both regards, he suits the bill.

But down to reasons seemingly unknown, England have made it clear Willey isnt required in this format anymore. I think he took the Yorkshire captaincy in T20 on the grounds it was made clear his T20I career for England was over.

Since 2018.....
Batting SR of 146
Bowling Econ of 7.9 with good wicket taking and aver of 21

Obviously Ed Smith is a once in a generation data genius, because to us lesser mortals who are merely idiotic plebs, it would seem picking worse bowlers who cant bat would be rather dumb while retiring a player with such figures.

[The Professor]

Gosh.....what an interesting thread to read.

One thing ive found of late si that, more than I can ever recall, there has been a real force of will to make certain players work. Buttler is the prime example of this. Banton is having more cracks of the whip than most players have had. I think Ali is also in a similar mould.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Mo is in both the squads v Australia.

And Willey is in neither.

Don't mind Mo being given further chances provided Morgan has the confidence to bowl him.

Think DW has been hard done by.

[sussexpob]

The picking of Moeen makes sense on a tactical level, he offers proven long term capacity in the role he is being asked to do. He is not on form at the moment, but if he suddenly regained form, hes a great pick. So I dont put him on the Buttler level of picking him 40 times in the hope he eventually scores some runs.

But Willey/Banton uncover a different selection policy; a huge misunderstanding in England over how interchangeable T20 and ODI cricket is. Banton has a woeful List A record, but a great T20 prospect.... so put him in the ODI team, all the same right? Willey is the opposite, hes become expendable to the ODI team over other prospects recently, but his T20 record in the last couple of years has been pretty splendid for the role he plays..... but ignore that, Ed Smith cant separate two totally different sports, decline in one (and England selectors always trust test over ODI, ODI over T20) means decline in the other.

Wood even gets touted as walking into this T20 team in more normal times..... hes hardly played in T20s, and his IPL career lasted a few overs of getting tanked around before dying after one game. How is he so dispensable?

Because hes seen as good in other formats, proves hes trustworthy.

[Durhamfootman]

the decision on DW is something we're very used to at Durham. Why bring a bit of variety to the side when something very samey is a much better option?

the difference at Durham, is that when we bowl samey rubbish and get flogged around the park, we don't have batsmen who can seemingly chase almost anything down

I've been bashing on about Mo for a while now (maybe a year or so?). I don't think England are doing him any favours keeping him in the central bubble (apart from his bank balance, that is). If they want him to have a role in the future then he needs to go back to Worcester, spanking county attacks to all parts and then spinning his team to victory every game.... which he does regularly when given the chance. That would get him some confidence back, I'm certain. He should be a huge asset to England and he hasn't been for a while. I think the last match summed up perfectly where his game is atm.

As far as the Aussie tour is concerned, honest Joe keeps scoring 60's in the dribble and he can certainly bowl Mo's one over, every game, so I'm not sure why Mo is in and Joe is out. Crikey, Malan could bowl Mo's one over, if the priority is to rest Joe, and that brings DW's lefties back into the mix.

[alfie]

Worth losing the t20 to see Moeen get a confidence boosting innings like that !

Still big questions over his bowling ; but he will now go into the Australia games in a far better mental state. No question a fully firing Moeen is one they will want in the side so let us hope he kicks on from today...

[Durhamfootman]

I haven't seen the highlights yet, but lets hope he can carry that into the Aussie series

[Durhamfootman]

at the same time, Mo didn't carry on to victory like Buttlerfingers did in the tests, so although it was encouraging it didn't matter ultimately

still.... if Mo does that once in a blue moon, Mr Ed is a man who will take it as complete justification for his selection policy

[Durhamfootman]

I haven't seen the highlights yet, but lets hope he can carry that into the Aussie series

well the Aussies won't let him get away with a missed stumping chance like that. Dead for all money and even Moeen seemed to take an age to realise that he hadn't been stumped. His turn around and scramble to get his bat back behind the line reminded me of those cartoons where someone runs off a cliff, realises, turns, then manages to get back on solid ground by running very fast with legs going like the clappers.... and still Sarfraz was fumbling. Remember that moment for future reference if needed