World Cup S/F 1, NZ vs SA, March 24

[Arthur Crabtree]

My vibe is going with NZ.

Bit of an advantage bringing in a new player for an injury, as the call up could (and has in Henry's case) have been playing plenty of cricket, and the subs would be coming in cold.

Who will choke last?

[Red Devil]

can't believe they have dropped Abbott after the way he has been playing - messed up my Cricinfo FL league team for tonight

I'm not quite sure what to expect tonight, this could go either way. I have 6 kiwis in my Cricinfo FL league team, but only 3 saffas so I should be betting on a kiwi win. But now with NZ having to chase, if the likes of Amla and ABD get going then NZ may buckle having to chase ina crunch game

[Arthur Crabtree]

Great first ball from Boult.

There was a lot to hit in Southee's first over, which Amla missed out on. Nerves?

[Arthur Crabtree]

Cant say Boult didn't deserve that wicket. Sensational start for him.

[bigfluffylemon]

Quick analysis of the tournament so far:

Out of 45 completed games, 23 have been won by the team batting first (I thought it was higher, but it's as even as ever). However, that splits quite heavily by country - 15 of 23 games in Australia have been won by the side batting first, whereas 16 of 22 games in New Zealand have been won by the side bowling first.

In 14 matches the team batting first has scored 320+ and won. Highest score chased has been 318
In 10 matches the team batting first has scored less than 200 and lost. Four further teams have scored less than 240 and lost. Lowest score defended has been 222 (and that was by D/L, lowest score of a full 50 over game defended is 235). Scores under 240 can only be defended if you are Pakistan.

Score between 240 and 319 batting first and it's a 50-50 on who wins. That said, the only teams to have made scores of between 240 and 300 batting first are Bangladesh, UAE, Zimbabwe and Ireland. Every game involving a top 8 side batting first has been over 300 or less than 240 (and of the top 8 only Pakistan have scored in the 200-240 range batting first). That's amazing.

So it seems that 320 is the new 300 (i.e. the score you need to make to be confident of victory), and for top 8 teams 300 is the new 250 i.e. the score that is a reasonable target to give you a 50-50 shot of victory.

[bigfluffylemon]

For the best opener in the world, Amla's had a very quiet tournament, and failed again today.

[Arthur Crabtree]

SA only scoring at four an over even though NZ really have the fields up.

[bigfluffylemon]

De Kock out too. Boult is on fire, again.

I'd love to see him in a final against Australia. Boult vs Warner and Starc vs McCullum? What a prospect.

[rich1uk]

good start by NZ

[Arthur Crabtree]

DeKock out to his first big shot. Really exciting start. But got to go back to work.

[GarlicJam]

I predict that Rossouw will putter around a while, feel the need to score far more quickly, get a couple of fours away and then get dismissed for around 20.

[whatever]

maiden.......

[bigfluffylemon]

McCullum has used a lot of his best bowlers' overs already. He's had a lot of success with that tactic as usually by the time they're out of overs the opposition is 6-7 down and in no position to threaten, but I wonder if it might come back to haunt him today.

[rich1uk]

McCullum has used a lot of his best bowlers' overs already. He's had a lot of success with that tactic as usually by the time they're out of overs the opposition is 6-7 down and in no position to threaten, but I wonder if it might come back to haunt him today.

was just thinking the same thing

SA being very careful still but with 8 overs in hand and still to get at least 8 overs from the part-time bowlers SA will fancy a big second half to their innings

[rich1uk]

Anderson doesn't half get a load of wickets with nothing deliveries