ICC World Cup 2015 - Warm-up matches

[The Waugh Twins]

Of the top teams there isn't a lot of difference to winning whether you bat first or field first.

So winning the toss doesn't really make a difference.

[Dr Cricket]

Of the top teams there isn't a lot of difference to winning whether you bat first or field first.

So winning the toss doesn't really make a difference.

Of course to the top teams but to the teams outside Aus/NZ/SA it make a difference especially in an one off game.
India/Sri lanka/England are more likely to win if the toss goes their way or do what their prefer IE India/Sri lanka/England all chase.
Only the top teams/Well balanced sides really don't care about the toss.

[The Waugh Twins]

I googled this

In day matches, the team that wins the toss and bats wins only 43.7% of the time.
In day-night matches, the team that wins the toss and bats wins 55.5% of the time, the team that wins the toss wins the game 53.7% of the time.

So, it becomes almost 50-50 in one days.

Can't really argue with stats. Mind you a lot of folks will.

[The Waugh Twins]

I think at the end of the day, winning batting first or second comes down to the individual players and their quality.

You have to be able to understand what you can get out of the pitch and what a good target is if you're batting first and you need to figure this out quickly. All great cricketers have this ability, and the team can't just decide from the get go that they need 285 or 320, etc.

Similarly if you are chasing 320, you may not necessarily be able to score quickly from the start or at the back end of the innings.

If you're going into a match and your mind set is on the toss, then chances are that team is already in a lot of trouble.

This analogy of course is not for the conditions they faced in India with the crazy dew.

[Dr Cricket]

I googled this

In day matches, the team that wins the toss and bats wins only 43.7% of the time.
In day-night matches, the team that wins the toss and bats wins 55.5% of the time, the team that wins the toss wins the game 53.7% of the time.

So, it becomes almost 50-50 in one days.

Can't really argue with stats. Mind you a lot of folks will.

5-6.3% is quite a big margin in games especially for a sample big like this and for something that is expected to give 50%.
Although not sure why you picked batting first since most teams like to bowl first now when they win the toss.
Should have been win the toss and win the game.

Also lets say winning the toss gives 5-10% advantage to the team that is quite a big difference to a team like India, England and Sri lanka especially in a knock-out game.

PS my point wasn't really the toss either since most team would prefer to bat first or bowl first and teams could lose the toss and still be happy in what their do.
I remember most of the time india would bowl first in ODI anyway since Dhoni would always chase if given a choice and most of the time the team winning the toss would bat which would again mean india chasing.
Might see if Stats shows any difference in results in batting first/second for all the teams in odi since last world cup.

[The Waugh Twins]

I've read another three articles on batting first versus batting second and there is an awful lot of arguing about it. Of course every one has their two cents worth, but if it's around 50-50 I don't see how they are coming up with their arguments saying one is better than the other.

Perhaps the best side might just be winning regardless.

Not saying certain conditions are not going to give an advantage on the odd occasion.

Of course weather has to be taken into account and D/L.

[Arthur Crabtree]

I've seen whole series go with the toss. It seems a huge factor to me. Particularly in England where early conditions can decide the match.

[Dr Cricket]

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... ;type=team
Batting first
SA 1.846
Aus 1.4
India 1.2
NZ 1
Pak 1
Sri lanka 0.903
England 0.800
West Indies 0.714
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... ;type=team
bowling first
india 2.117
Australia 2.111
England 1.33
Sri lanka 1.166
South Africa 1.153
pakistan 1.142
New Zealand 1
West indies 0.809


India/Aus/Eng all do better chasing.
SA prefer to bat first
NZ have no preference.

Batting first or Bowling first makes a huge difference to the team chances of winning especially in an one off game.

[The Waugh Twins]

I can't recall in all the years of watching ODI that I've ever been worried about winning the toss or whether Australia have had to bat first or second. I've always backed them, even in India where their is an advantage due to the dew.

Perhaps that is the luxury of following Australia, but it simply is something that's never crossed my mind.

One exception is when we play the minnows, I always hope we win the toss and bat first so we can at least see some runs scored.

[Dr Cricket]

Although india not the only place that Dew happen considering UAE/Sri lanka/Bangladesh and even England sees dew.

But certainly in the last decade I have seen an advantage in batting 2nd since chasing 270-300 isn't that tough any more and a lot more teams are winning batting 2nd because the first team either had tough conditions up front or went too hard at the death and didn't get the extra 20-30 runs needed.

[Arthur Crabtree]

I suppose it matters more where the teams are more closely matched. Australia are unbeatable whichever way the coin falls.

[Dr Cricket]

I can't recall in all the years of watching ODI that I've ever been worried about winning the toss or whether Australia have had to bat first or second. I've always backed them, even in India where their is an advantage due to the dew.

Perhaps that is the luxury of following Australia, but it simply is something that's never crossed my mind.

One exception is when we play the minnows, I always hope we win the toss and bat first so we can at least see some runs scored.

I wouldn't really worry about the toss in a bilateral game or what india does in them but in ICC events or knock-out games it can be a difference between winning and losing especially if the teams is more likely to win bowling or batting first.

[The Waugh Twins]

I suppose it matters more where the teams are more closely matched. Australia are unbeatable whichever way the coin falls.

That may be why you follow this stat more often. I've just never worried about it.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Perks of being an Aussie.

[Arthur Crabtree]

I take valium before the toss.