by bigfluffylemon » Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:50 pm
Somehow, England (and Sri Lanka and Netherlands) still have a theoretical path:
Netherlands beat Afghanistan
Pakistan beat New Zealand
England beat Australia
Afghanistan beat Australia
England beat Netherlands
Sri Lanka beat New Zealand
South Africa beat Afghanistan
Bangladesh beat Australia
England beat Pakistan
Sri Lanka lose to at least one of India or Bangladesh
That leaves England, Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand and Afghanistan on 8 points, and Sri Lanka too if they beat one of India or Bangladesh (and Netherlands also if they beat India...) with NRR the deciding factor.
Of course, those results are not going to happen (although if you look down them, none are individually out of the question. Afghanistan and Bangladesh beating Australia and Sri Lanka beating New Zealand seem least likely, along with England winning anything...), but even then, England need to be in the top 2 for NRR, so not only do they need to win all three games, they need to win them by huge margins and hope Sri Lanka thump New Zealand.