Arthur Crabtree wrote:I presume in the early games the toss isn't going be effected by conditions because there's no dew. As someone suggested above, the semis/final could have been played earlier.
The "dew factor" is one of those mythical things in sport that has become a sort of widely appreciated truth, but has zero actual tangible evidence to support. Well actually, there is a lot of evidence to show that actually the dew factor is real, but it actually works in the total opposite way to the established widsom of commentators and captains - the team batting second historically performs worse.
Take ODIs (bigger sample and a longer portion of an innings played in dew conditions).
- Generally, the team batting second in D/N matches win/loss ratio is about 0.91
- Contrary to established wisdom of dew being more a factor in Asia, this win ratio lowers to 0.88 batting under lights in Asia. So it becomes a slightly bigger disadvantage.
in T20Is (smaller sample)
- In asia, the win/loss ratio chasing is 0.671 in DN matches - A HUGE advantage to the team batting first.
- Elsewhere outside Asia, the ratio actually narrows to significantly to almost reach parity - 0.925 loss ratio but over only 110 matches - with only 3 matches difference in wins/loss (which could be overturned in one series in the future)
Now you could argue that this limits itself to games in which captains think the conditions will mean that dew will be an advantageous factor for them batting in the second innings.
- In games teams win the toss an elected to field, the win loss ratio drops significantly in general to 0.683
- This is noticeably worse in Asia - 0.53 for chasing teams electing to chase.
You then come to bowling types. Its generally accepted its harder to bowl with a wet ball, especially for spinners who cannot grip the ball.
First innings of DN matches
-Pace bowlers average 24.91 with econ of 8.03
-Spinners average 25 with an econ of 7.21
Second innings of DN matches
- Pace bowlers average 24.62 with econ of 7.71
-Spinners average 21.50 with an econ of 6.83
The trend is clearly the opposite to that accepted. If you wanted to take it slightly further and limit these figures again to toss wins where conditions are more likely to suit the argument, when electing to field first and bat last, the second innings bowling team have slightly (almost negligible) positive trends in wicket averages for both bowler types and small but noticeable (0.2 RPO in both cases) positive trends in runs given away.
So in short, any captain, and there are many, that elected to field first in a T20 and mentions the Dew factor is actually batting against decades of facts that disapprove their theory. In general actually, batting first has a clear advantage.