by Arthur Crabtree » Sun Aug 09, 2015 9:22 pm
Journey's end in Oval Test matches, and for more than most this time. Michael Clarke makes his last appearance in Tests, frustrated by injury and diminishing returns. Few of this Australian squad will play another Ashes. Goodbye to Brad, at least one Mitch, Buck Rogers, Ryano, and the usual also rans and bit players.
Most of this England side are in for a longer haul, and the current optimism is put to the test for the first time, on a ground that has been good to England in recent years, as long as you don't mess with the voodoo. England have lost the last two Tests played at the Oval, which weren't final Tests: against South Africa and Pakistan. They haven't lost there at the end of the summer since Australia completed a 4-1 series win in 2001, Steve Waugh exacting his last mental disintegration on English soil with a very personal 157*.
This time it is England who are pushing for a 4-1 win, and significant retribution for the away Ashes whitewash. England will be motivated for this game. There will be no end of summer, dead rubber caps as there were in the Ashes two years ago. Expect James Anderson to come back and either Mark Wood or Steve Finn to be pragmatically axed.
For Australia, the XI is more difficult to predict. Clarke will lead, and probably be ushered to the wicket through a guard of honour. And England may remind him that he has 63 runs in three Test at the Oval. It is possible that Australia will pick a few players who have watched the team losing so far (though don't expect veteran Brad Haddin to be clapped to the crease). Pat Cummins or Peter Siddle could replace Josh Hazlewood, whose reserves are entering the red zone. Shane Watson may point out that he averages 42.5 in Ashes cricket, and scored a muscular 176 on the ground in 2013 (Steve Smith also made 138*). Fawad Ahmed might like to contact Missing Persons and tell them to call off the search.
For an England team that is celebrating such an overwhelming win, there are few players for whom the series has been an unconditional success. Certainly it has been for Joe Root, significantly replacing Smith as the number one rated batter in the world. He has 443 runs, two tons, and two fifties in the series. And four wickets. And some outstanding catches. Stuart Broad has been as dominant with the ball, taking 21 wickets at a strike rate of 35. But just as significant has been England's catching, with few chances spilled and some spectacular ones taken, England are once more happily led in the field by a red headed lad from the north east; now Ben Stokes. Adam Lyth plays the traditional Oval role of the new boy playing for a place on the winter tours.
I hope it isn't too negative of me to point out that the experienced England batters have a poor record on this venue against the Aussies. Bell and Cook have a fifty between them, and both average about twenty. In his single Test against Australia there, Joe Root only scored 68. Against all comers, Cook has two hundreds in nine games and Bell one in ten. Root averages 113, having made the Indians suffer. Bairstow, Lyth, Stokes and Buttler haven't played an Oval Test. Broad has a good record in the Ashes, and has the memory of his last Test heroics in 2009. Anderson only has five Ashes Oval wickets at 39.4. Against all opposition, Broad and Anderson both average slightly over 30. It was their spinner Grame Swann who did so well. Maybe Moeen Ali will make a bigger contribution at the tail end of this series.
Whatever the result, the 2015 Ashes will be seen as a triumph for the England team, their new coach, and their captain. It is doubtful whether the toss will be significant as it was in Birmingham and Nottingham. Australia will be looking for the slight ignominy of dead rubber bounce, and the promise of redemption in the ODIs.
I always say that everybody's right.