by st_brendy » Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:02 pm
Even though Key comes across as very much a captain who is willing to get involved in setting a game up, I see little reason for Kent to do so here. Two or three early wickets tomorrow, and they can still win this game 'naturally'.
So we're not going to win the game by those means. The only way we win this is from a horror Kent collapse, and at the Rose Bowl that rarely happens. The pitch is too true, even though it does tend to start turning.
So I'm putting a win out the window. It's a draw or a defeat. I'd like to think that the great work we put in during the second half of today should mean that we escape with a draw, but I'm not getting ahead of myself just yet. But Christ, I think we need to.
Going into next week with a ten point lead rather than a five point is important for four reasons:
1. It almost certainly forces Essex to have to win. 13 points is the most you can pick up from a draw, so we'd need just three points next week to force them to have to win.
2. It means that any win for us next win would suffice. We wouldn't need to worry ourselves with bonus points.
3. It means that Worcs may not be able to be certain of winning the title next week based on bonus points alone. The gap between us and them would be 18 points, rather than 23 points. And an 18 point gap is just enough to put a little bit of pressure on Worcs not to lose. The last thing we want is them going to Essex in party mood, and taking their eyes off the match in hand. If we can't secure promotion off our own backs, we will need Worcs to do it for us (and their reward for helping us would, in return, be pipping us the title - and I would gladly except that).
4. It would mean that a high scoring draw for us next week, say with seven or eight bonus points plus the draw points, may be enough even if Essex win. Essex would not only have to win, but pick up maximum (or near maximum) bonus points. A ten point lead plus five draw points next week equates to, bar one point, 16 win points. So bar that one point, it would become a bonus point game next week.
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