by st_brendy » Sat Jul 12, 2014 5:03 pm
Kent have just been totally smashed by Essex - losing by 63 runs is as comprehensive as it gets really - and so cannot now catch us.
Somerset are the only side outside of the top four who can catch us on points (we're on 14, they could still get 17), although Sussex and/or Gloucs could yet catch us on NRR (both would need to win 3 out of 3 to equal our current 14).
On the basis that on our current form you simply can't see us winning 2 out of 2, we are going to require others to slip up (how have we got ourselves into this position?!). So the fixtures to look out for are:
Tues 15: Sussex vs Glamorgan (brilliant for us, they can't both win)
Weds 16: Surrey vs Somerset (again brilliant for us, they can't both win)
Fri 18: Gloucs vs Surrey (again, guess what, brilliant for us, they can't both win)
Fri 18: Glamorgan vs Essex (good for us for a different reason - Essex are simply on fire, so a tough fixture for Glamorgan)
Fri 18: Kent vs Somerset
Sun 20: Gloucs vs Essex (good luck to Gloucs having to beat Surrey and now Essex in the space of 24 hours)
Thurs 24: Middlesex vs Surrey
Fri 25: Gloucs vs Glamorgan (again brilliant for us, they can't both win - although by this point, Gloucs will probably be out of it)
Fri 25: Kent vs Surrey
Fri 25: Somerset vs Middlesex
So Surrey and Somerset both have two matches to come against Middlesex and Kent. So long they don't slip up, that would put them onto 16 and 15 respectively. One more win for us puts us onto 16 too. But then there is also that Surrey-Somerset match (not to mention Surrey's trip to Gloucs).
If Somerset were to therefore beat Surrey in that match, it would appear that we'd have to rely on Glamorgan losing to Essex and one other, if we don't win 2 out of 2. On the other hand, if Surrey beat Somerset, then one win does it for us. Potentially, a rained off no-result could do it for us, depending on NRR.
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