The Ashes: Australia in England 16th Jun - 31 July

[GarlicJam]

Bit of a tough watch for the Aussies.... ready for sleep deprivation all summer, Alfie?

As I was saying to my wife last night: this next six weeks are the busiest for me at work for the year. Absolutely flat out.

Not good timing.

[bigfluffylemon]

Tend to agree with the analyses here. England are not at full strength and the Aussies are, and even at full strength Aussies have the stronger squad.

But then the 2015 series Australia were out and out favourites on paper, and England managed to mug them on a couple of green seamers (8-15 anyone?). 2 years ago Australia weren't much different, England were much worse (with the notable exception of Archer), and England still mugged them at Headingley for a draw. England have been defying predictions for 12 months.

Head says Australia win for the first time in 22 years. Heart says that England will continue to defy the odds.

The part of me that will be staying up to watch just hopes we get a closely fought series.

[bigfluffylemon]

I also have a nasty feeling that those expecting Warner to be Broad's bunny again are going to be disappointed. Not saying he won't get him at all, but somehow I doubt that average of 9.5 will repeat itself.

Happy to be proven wrong, of course.

[alfie]

Not long to wait now ! I see most (English) opinion on here - as in most places - is as pessimistic as ever leading in

Not unreasonable of course . Australia have a strong side with good recent form , although a few of their players have less than imposing records in England. And if the pitches are tending to flat you'd think they will be better suited than the home team given their problems in English conditions usually revolve around lateral movement.

But on the other hand this England side have defied expectations for the last year in a lot of different situations : who is to say they can't rise to the occasion once again ? Fair bit of concern over injuries ; but really it is principally Stokes that is the issue as his all round contribution , as well as leadership , is surely vital - and the question of whether he can stay fit for five matches looms over the series. Not so bothered about the bowlers as there are enough alternates to cover all but the most horrendous injury setbacks : and surely we've seen enough of those already for the law of averages to kick in.

Have already posted my qualified optimism. I do worry about Moeen - but I don't have a clearly superior option so will trust in Ben and Baz and hope their judgement is vindicated. Otherwise happy enough with the England selection. As a general rule I always favour the home team in Ashes series - and would be well ahead over the last twenty years had I been a betting man ! So sticking with my feeling that England will somehow surprise the odds-makers once again.

In truth though we are all guessing , are we not ? One of the great things about anticipation of a series : right now , literally anything is possible ; and until the action gets under way the outcome is as totally unknowable as the fate of Schrodinger's Cat before the physicist opens the box...

[GarlicJam]

I'm excited.

[Durhamfootman]

England opt to bat first

[Durhamfootman]

Hazelwood is fit

when did that happen?

[bigfluffylemon]

(personally at Edgbaston I'd play both and leave out Starc).

*cough*

[bigfluffylemon]

I'm excited.

I'm bricking it...

[Durhamfootman]

first ball crashed to the boundary

[sussexpob]

Duckett gone...22/1

[Gingerfinch]

England to be 350 All out by tea at this rate!

[Arthur Crabtree]

A long while since I've seem live cricket, but my vibe says the best, closest series since '05, when we saw the attacking cricket we're expecting this time.

Two random factors. The heat. If this hot dry early summer continues, we're not going to get very English pitches and conditions.

Aussies look very familiar. Maybe a few of these are not quite still at their best. Though, I expect they'll be up for it.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Boland and Lyon taking some early stick.

[sussexpob]

Wicket just before lunch really changes things. 124/3