Ashes 2021-22.

[Durhamfootman]

I can not see the reasoning in picking Carey. His form does not justify a baggy green in the test arena.

An opportunity to bed himself in against rubbish opposition.... it's like having a test against Ireland, two tests against Zimbabwe and 2 tests against Bangladesh to cement your place in the team and build some confidence before having to face some decent cricket sides

[yuppie]

Carey in the team makes for a weaker Australian team. An opener yet to cement them selves and a middle order still trying to find them selves.

I also think there is a problem with Lyon, he is not the bowler he was and sadly there is no obvious player who can push for his place.

There are plenty of holes in this Australian team.

[Arthur Crabtree]

England's bowlers might be able to exploit weaknesses but the batters won't be able to take advantage. Plus England will get into a crisis over whether they should field a spinner who doesn't get into the side as a batter.

[alfie]

Carey is the most likely choice surely. He is a decent keeper , with a bit of experience behind him ; and not rubbish with the bat. Could say much the same of Inglis I guess : neither of them exactly a new Gilchrist but they don't grow on trees. Paine wasn't all that anyway , though he was capable of some useful resistance at seven.
I don't think the change in keeper makes a lot of difference to Australian team strength , in itself.

Do agree with Yuppie there are weaknesses in the home team. If England can find enough runs from somewhere they might compete far better than most on here are expecting.

Big "if" , though.

[sussexpob]

Do agree with Yuppie there are weaknesses in the home team. If England can find enough runs from somewhere they might compete far better than most on here are expecting

Anyone saying Australia have weaknesses should maybe take a look at how these supposedly weak players perform on Aussie wickets.

Khawaja is not good enough to get in the team for 2 years, but he still averages nearly 53 at home... which in comparison, is better than any English player since Peter May retired in 1961. Head averages 47 at home. Thats before we add Warner (62), Smith (69) and Marnus (72)

Harris, the bunny, averages 34 at home.... which only Root in England's team can match in recent times.

You then add in the fact England's bowlers were cannon fodder last time out and did nothing vs a battery of fast bowlers.....

England have no chance of winning this series

[bigfluffylemon]

Khawaja has played on some very flat decks, but sussex is absolutely right. These players are very hard to get out at home. Even against NZ's world class attack they made buckets of runs. Only India seems to have got the better of Australia's batsmen in Australia of late.

[sussexpob]

Khawaja has played on some very flat decks, but sussex is absolutely right. These players are very hard to get out at home. Even against NZ's world class attack they made buckets of runs. Only India seems to have got the better of Australia's batsmen in Australia of late.

Even in that India series, Australia made 750 runs each of the last two tests against a strong attack. Ok, they didnt make runs at the start, but context helps to explain a bit of that - the Adelaide test was a DN game, which is proving to provide far lower scoring in general. And that Melbourne pitch has been a project of the MCG curator and has drifted a lot in quality, with that pitch acknowledged to have gone too far the other way and too green.

On a side note, a few travelling players in the Shield are talking up the MCG wicket as playing perfectly this year. After 4 years trying, they apparently have finally landed on a wicket that has a great balance and a bit of pace/bounce. I read one captain (cant remember who) describe it as being reminiscent of a traditional Gabbatoir pitch.... runs on hand for batting well, but rewards for good pace bowling.

[sussexpob]

With the recent weather in OZ, its hard to predict what conditions will be like, because it seems all the venues have been deluged by constant rain. How that will affect the pitches is yet to be seen, or if it indeed will. I tend to think that when Australia are confident in out batting a team, the more the pitches will fade to help batting. The pitches last time out did more v India, but I think the Aussies are wary of giving India flat decks..... they, and everyone, just under-estimated how well the Indian seam reserves would do. While it seemed more conventional wisdom on how Indian team bats when conditions dont assist pace bowlers (their home records are enough of an indication they can bat all day).

With England though, unless its as flat as a pancake, I cant see us scoring many. So I expect good batting surfaces that Australia have a chance to wrack up scores on.

England really need to target that Adelaide test.... If they can't win in Adelaide, its going to be a long series. Jimmy had that pink ball ragging around under lights last time, and in those conditions the England medium-fast quicks have most chance of breaching the gaps between teams.

Although the Aussies can bowl with the pink ball too..... after all, India did make 36 all out in the DN test last time out.

[alfie]

Khawaja has played on some very flat decks, but sussex is absolutely right. These players are very hard to get out at home. Even against NZ's world class attack they made buckets of runs. Only India seems to have got the better of Australia's batsmen in Australia of late.

Even in that India series, Australia made 750 runs each of the last two tests against a strong attack. Ok, they didnt make runs at the start, but context helps to explain a bit of that - the Adelaide test was a DN game, which is proving to provide far lower scoring in general. And that Melbourne pitch has been a project of the MCG curator and has drifted a lot in quality, with that pitch acknowledged to have gone too far the other way and too green.

On a side note, a few travelling players in the Shield are talking up the MCG wicket as playing perfectly this year. After 4 years trying, they apparently have finally landed on a wicket that has a great balance and a bit of pace/bounce. I read one captain (cant remember who) describe it as being reminiscent of a traditional Gabbatoir pitch.... runs on hand for batting well, but rewards for good pace bowling.

650 , actually. But on a couple of flattish pitches , it wasn't enough - though in fact it was the rather fatigued bowling that let them down in the end. Still would normally have expected them to do better against what ended up a rather makeshift Indian attack. The MCG pitch had a bit of life but was certainly no demon : but Smith had a rare double failure and we saw what a difference that can make.

Hey nobody is suggesting Australia are anything but favourites for this series : even if England bring their best game they are going to be up against it - though the La Nina may help to even things up a bit in the bowling department. I have nothing but respect for Australia - especially at home - but I don't think they are quite as unassailable as you apparently do. To win , England will need to improve rather a lot on recent performances : but if matches all turned out as the computer suggests cricket would be a boring old game. I imagine Glen McGrath will fancy his usual 5-0 but I hope he's wrong this time because a tight Ashes series (and we've not seen too many of those recently , one way or the other) is always more fun. We will see.

[sussexpob]

Not sure where my maths got 750, but yes you are right ...650.

[Durhamfootman]

I have nothing but respect for Australia - especially at home - but I don't think they are quite as unassailable as you apparently do.

I don't think they are unassailable either, I just don't think England have what it takes to take advantage of it.

England have 2 batsmen in their side and one of them hasn't picked up a bat in months. They can bowl as well as they are able to, but that won't be enough unless Root can score a double ton in every test

[sussexpob]

I have nothing but respect for Australia - especially at home - but I don't think they are quite as unassailable as you apparently do.

I don't think they are unassailable either, I just don't think England have what it takes to take advantage of it.

England have 2 batsmen in their side and one of them hasn't picked up a bat in months. They can bowl as well as they are able to, but that won't be enough unless Root can score a double ton in every test

Of course Australia arent unbeatable, as their last series proves... but as with DFM, I dont exactly have massive faith in England's ability to challenge them with their batting problems running so deep (and so consistently)

Of course, thats taking the expected line ups for granted. If the Aussie seamers all collapse in the first couple of tests, then maybe this changes things.

[bigfluffylemon]

I have nothing but respect for Australia - especially at home - but I don't think they are quite as unassailable as you apparently do.

I don't think they are unassailable either, I just don't think England have what it takes to take advantage of it.

England have 2 batsmen in their side and one of them hasn't picked up a bat in months. They can bowl as well as they are able to, but that won't be enough unless Root can score a double ton in every test

Of course Australia arent unbeatable, as their last series proves... but as with DFM, I dont exactly have massive faith in England's ability to challenge them with their batting problems running so deep (and so consistently)

Of course, thats taking the expected line ups for granted. If the Aussie seamers all collapse in the first couple of tests, then maybe this changes things.

I think we're all agreed on England not having the batting to take advantage of any possible opportunities their bowlers can create, even if the Australian batting and pitches do make them potentially vulnerable.

And that's assuming they even do. 2 years ago, an attack featuring Southee, Boult and Wagner couldn't stop Australia racking up 450+ three home tests in a row, and only took 20 wickets in one out of three tests.

[sussexpob]

People tend to lazily say you need pace on Aussie wickets, but I think the real trend is that bowlers who rely on the ball needing to swing will not do well in the long term, and people who rely on seam movement or bounce flourish far more.

That NZ series is an example of that - Southee got the swing under lights n the DN game and took wickets, not so much after. Boult bowled the ball of the series to poor Joe Burns first ball into the second test with the new ball, the ball then stopped swinging and he got carted around... he had a disaster few tests. Wagner had a great series... he's also the bowler who bowls (according to a cricinfo stat I read recently) the shortest average length ever recorded and has no use for swing.

[Arthur Crabtree]

There's reverse swing though. But with the no spit laws, plus close scrutiny, maybe that won't be a factor. But it usually is.