Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:24 am

Arthur Crabtree wrote:Notable that those games Vince played are not against the best sides. He's mostly been shuffled in for minor series.


And still largely failed...
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:31 am

Arthur Crabtree wrote:England have a lot of middle order candidates, but not as many top order. So if Root isn't there, Vince feels like an alternative. Maybe England should revisit Alex Hales?


Doesn't Banton usually open in limited overs? Pretty sure he could slot in at 3, Morgs at 4. I guess without Root, Stokes and Buttler you're going to have a bit of a gap somewhere, given Mo appears to have forgotten which way up to hold his bat.
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby Alviro Patterson » Wed Aug 05, 2020 12:38 am

Vince seems to be getting a lot of stick, whereas Roy, Bairstow and Moeen have been completely anonymous. England scoring 328 is a fine effort considering the aforementioned three have mustered just 6 runs between them.

Moeen Ali, averages 25 with the bat and 50 with the ball. Age is not going to be on his side either come India 2023, so it's time for England to look at other spin bowling options.
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:47 am

Couldn't agree more about Moeen.

Bairstow just bashed 82 off 40 in the last game and is on a record-equalling ODI streak of form, so I reckon he gets a pass on one bad game.
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby alfie » Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:00 am

Poor old Moeen is starting to look as if he's "gone". Has always been a confidence player ; and right now he hasn't any. Bad move to make him vice captain for this series , in my view - he didn't need that extra pressure ( although they probably didn't expect him to have to take over from Morgan mid-game)

He opted out last year . I'd suggest his mind is probably still a little unfocused . And this disjointed season isn't helping. Best to send him back to the domestic game. He was a damn good player ; but unless he can get his head together they're bashing their heads against a brick wall trying to reintegrate him into the international game.

As Alviro says , his age isn't on his side. But he's a spin bowler , so who knows ?

If (big if) a tour of India happens anytime soon , he is not a sensible option. Leach , Bess , Rashid perhaps ...

I like watching Vince bat. Unfortunately I rarely get to do it for long :)
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:30 am

A players batting average in ODIs means almost nothing in Moeens situation. Its easy to look at the figures and be shocked at how little production he is making, but the fact is you need to put this into context. If a batsman is coming in at the business end of an innings and has to commit batting suicide to push the score on quickly, not being able to take time to play himself in, is he going to average a lot of runs? Of course not. In order to rate his worth as a batsman you therefore need to contextualise his contributions in line of other batsman who are asked to play a similar role. And if he reguarly coming with only half the wickets down, a top 6 player still in, and only a handful of overs left, then his average contribution is totally engulfed by his SR in terms of importance. Its better to score 10 in 5 runs and get everyone down the order having a bash, then score 25 in 30 balls keeping his wicket intact.

Looking at Moeens stats, he has played all but 4 innings at position 7 since 2018. Interestingly his highest position played is one inning at five, he scored 46 not out in a match winning effort from 30 odd balls. After that he came in at 6 three times;

1. With the score at 459-4 in the highest ever ODI innings... 48th innings, he scored a quickfire 11
2. Top scored in an innings of 130/9 chasing a DL target in a rain affected match...37 off 37
3. Sent up to slog with England needing 9 an over (which they got) but scored a duck.... Buttler also got a duck doing the same thing just before him.

None of these innings are ones you think Moeen can do much other than try to smash everything, so its hardly like we can make a fair judgement of his scores on an average basis.

So you move and ask, what are number 7s doing in ODI cricket in the modern era? What is the average production? Since 2015 start;

20310 runs have been scored at 7.... the average innings is worth 23.07 runs at SR 89.20 with a not out percentage of 20 percent boosting that figure.
7.5 percent of innings end in a 50 being scored
0.07 percent end in a 100

Moeen averages 21.59 at 7
5.2 percent of innings end in passing 50
1.7 percent a 100
SR is 105

So you see, he averages just over a run less than the average 7, but is batting far more aggressively to get there. He has the 3rd best score at 7 achieved, and one of only 3 players in 5 years to score a 100 at all.

But nevertheless, you might be inclined to say he is under the average for the position; but this does make sense. England have the most successful batting line up in world cricket, for a number 7 this completely radicalises his role in the side. On average, the top 5 batters of England score over 230 runs before the 5th wicket drops, with the average 5th wicket drop coming in the 40th over. With a top 6 bat still in, and a healthy ability all the way down to 11 usually in this period, what is Moeen likely to be sent out to do in this average situation he faces? Smash the cover off it, of course.

In fact, in matches in this period, the number 7 for England only bats out his innings in 57 matches in nearly 100 games. The average balls faced is 17. India also have a massive top order, in less than half matches the number 7 gets out. So while India number sevens average 25, their average match contribution is over half that. This equating to roughly 12 balls a match the number 7 gets to make an impact. No suprise in a 100 games, no Indian has score a 100 or got near to one. The average top 5 Indian scores nearly bang on 50 per wicket in 55 balls.... the number 7 is coming in at 275 of 300 balls down on average with a top 6 player warmer at the crease, so that ties in with the 12 ball faced per match average (as half the deliveries left).....
what are players coming in to these situations to do?

Moeen still scores more than New Zealand, South African, Ireland, West Indian, Afghan and Zimbabwean 7s despite having less time to score, and does so at far higher rates. He scores less on average per dismissal, but more actual runs, than Indians per game. Pakistan have the most 50 at 7, but not that greater average, far slower, and their 7 is coming in 50 runs and about 8 overs before Moeen does, so they have time to make contributions and bat in. Bangaldesh have a higher average, but 1 x 50 in 5 years at 7, a very low sub 90s SR and the worst top 6, meaning the player gets the most time ...even with the highest NO ration, the average is splitting hairs in the decimals anyway.

Australia are the odd one out. Their 7s outperform everyone. But if we wanted to also focus on recent trends as Moeens form has dipped down to 17-18 average since 2018, that average is about proportional in its drop to Englands top 6 increase in scoring. Englands batsman in the last 2 years have increased their run output per top 6 position of around 3 runs per wicket. That leaves Moeen coming in even later on average, over 43-44 ish, so the available balls are less and less for him to impact.

So is he a bad 7? You can make a case that his production is not great, but even with Bradman at his peak coming in for only 12 balls a game, what do you expect him to produce? Moeen is being asked to smash a quickfire 10 or so and hes by far the quickest SR consistent 7 in the game at doing that.
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:37 am

On the bowling side, who else economy wise gets near his 5.2 an over? He doesnt take wickets, but 260/0 is a worse score in ODI cricket than 261 all out. England can blame Moeen for their terrible bowling, but Curran, Willey, Rashid are all far more expensive. Rashid is hardly a massive wicket threat either,and neither are the others. Curran gives away 10 more runs a game for instance, and isnt taking that many wickets.

And you have to add his batting SR to his bowling SR. Hes way above average in how quickly he scores, and way below average in runs he gives away. In scoring rate efficiency, both play a part so his worth is far more than it would first appear
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby Durhamfootman » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:09 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:Hundred for Balbirnie.

Ireland are going to do it.

Collingwood out.

It didn't even occur to me that Ireland might do it, so well done them. Good batting or poor bowling?

I agree... Collingwood out....... he's needed up here to do a proper head coach job for a change.... for a team that matters
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby Durhamfootman » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:10 pm

I see that Mo's 1 was very nearly the run that won it for England.... what a guy!
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby alfie » Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:53 pm

You make a good case for Moeen , Sussex :thumb

To be clear , I am totally in agreement he has been a very good player for England in both red and white ball cricket. I fear that right now he isn't the same player , however ; and suspect that having him turn out in the ODI s is doing him no favours.
(Not too bothered about his ODI batting - I see him primarily as a bowler in that format , albeit one who can contribute useful runs when needed/has an opportunity.) But it's his bowling that has gone off. Was not very effective in the World Cup , and has looked rather ordinary against Ireland. He may still be the best option for the second spinner in the fifty over game but he just doesn't seem to offer what he used to.
I am more concerned about his Test prospects though. Still think an in form Moeen is a better fit in this England team than a Bess or a Leach - and certainly on an Indian tour , say , a logical choice. I think his confidence has suffered from being messed around in the batting order by England , coping with minor injuries and having some poor matches as a result. And I am afraid that unless and until he can regain that confidence they're wasting their time trying to keep him in the bubble...he'd be better off getting runs and wickets in the Bob Willis Cup.

Clearly they're still interested in him. I just hope they handle him the best way ; as I would like to see him back. Just not sure he will make it - and I'm sure this accursed pandemic and the associated upheaval are not going to make it any easier for him. Hope I'm wrong.
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby Alviro Patterson » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:04 pm

sussexpob wrote:A players batting average in ODIs means almost nothing in Moeens situation. Its easy to look at the figures and be shocked at how little production he is making, but the fact is you need to put this into context.


All the more reason to find a more effective player. Bowling all-rounders are capable of hitting business end innings, heck i'd play Dave Willey/Chris Woakes at 7 and go with two frontline spinners for India 2023. Dawson coming at 8 won't weaken the batting, if anything it will enhance the bowling.

It is spinners that England need to identify, especially with Rashid's shoulder issue. England can easily assemble a winning ODI team without the need to play Moeen.
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby Durhamfootman » Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:26 pm

Worcester fans will be desperate to get Mo back next season. His domestic numbers must be sensational because he regularly scored big runs and then took a shed load of wickets. I agree with alfie that his confidence seems shot and it has looked that way for a while playing for England. I feel sorry for him. I'm sure he'd end up being much happier back with the pears. Not as rich... but happier

For a brief period he was right up there. The Stokes/Bairstow/Ali 6/7/8 combo was as good as anything in world cricket for a little while, but sometimes everything only clicks into place for that brief period and once it's done, it's done. Trying to put it all back into place is just a lesson in futility

Mo is a very worthy cricketer. I think he should finish off his excellent career back at his county where he can enjoy the last few years of his career, where his county can reap the rewards and where he can pass on all of his skills and experience to the next generation
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby dan08 » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:34 pm

Moeen Ali has the worst List A bowling average of all time of all bowlers who have taken more than 100 wickets. https://twitter.com/RVICricketStats/sta ... 1155190784
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:07 am

It's a good argument from Sussex though. England's limited overs world cup winning spin bowlers are both flawed and each a little vulnerable. They could be discarded in the pursuit of something better which might never emerge, or they could be given an extended chance in a situation which is far from normal.
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Re: Ireland LO Tour of England, July 30-Aug 4

Postby sussexpob » Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:48 am

Alviro Patterson wrote:
sussexpob wrote:A players batting average in ODIs means almost nothing in Moeens situation. Its easy to look at the figures and be shocked at how little production he is making, but the fact is you need to put this into context.


All the more reason to find a more effective player. Bowling all-rounders are capable of hitting business end innings, heck i'd play Dave Willey/Chris Woakes at 7 and go with two frontline spinners for India 2023. Dawson coming at 8 won't weaken the batting, if anything it will enhance the bowling


How would that work in a statistical model? As demonstrated above, teams like India and England who are now regularly capable of having a top 6 that bats through an innings, only leave a tiny amount of time for a number 7 to impact. On average Indias 7 gets 12 balls a game over the last 5 years, and is left not out or not batted 60 percent of the time. England is less because they bat quicker to get to the 5th wicket drop point, but in the last 2-3 years that point is pushed back now to only around 18 balls for an impact. You can argue that this is a statistical average that may not take into account huge scores and low scores, but in actuality the fact Indias 7 only gets out in 40 percent of matches and Englands around 50-55 percent of games, it does the statistical average plays out in reality a lot.

So lets take England. On average there is 6 overs left and Buttler just got out. The score is 250/5 in the 44th over. Out comes your chosen 7....
If its Moeen, on average he hits 20 in 18 balls.
Willey or Woakes its 16 in 18
Your choice of number 7 just left 4 runs out on the field based on quite a lot of provable performance data spread over about 300 ODIs worth of evidence. Worth noting as well that Woakes and Willey bat below 7, so the expected SR should be higher, as they are coming into even more slogfest times.

The batting average or form averages really dont matter. You are left with an equation where 6 batters only have to cover 36 balls, and one or two of the batters left is a specialist, with Englands case having batters who have regularly batted as all rounders in county top 6s coming in at 10 or 11. It would take a disaster to get bowled out most of the time, so the key stat at this point is solely SR. If each of my batters goes over 100SR and lasts just 6 balls, the score is getting big.Willey and Woakes average SR 88 to 90. Putting them at 7 on the understanding they might score more runs average wise (which they dont anyway, their averages are inferior to Moeens, and as they come in later its a more false average as their not outs are huge in comparison) is not optimal.

Its a bit like saying youd pick the Mobot for a 4 x 100m relay on the basis that hes a multiple olympic champion and has a better pedigree, then watch him finish 20 meters behind the 1000th fastest sprinter in the world. Yeah, so if the race continued for another 200ms, hed catch and pass the other guy as he tires, but this isnt a distance race.....its a sprint. Batting in the last 5 overs with SRs in the high 80s is like turning up to a gun fight with a bow and arrow. Its sub-optimal.

dan08 wrote:Moeen Ali has the worst List A bowling average of all time of all bowlers who have taken more than 100 wickets.


He also has the lowest economy rate of all England players to have played more than a handful of matches since he debuted. ODIs is about not conceding runs in a given amount of time, dropping the person who for the last 6 years has proven to be the most consistent person in stopping the scoreboard rolling over doesnt seem sensible. If for instance we dropped Moeen, and put Willey in as the slot 7 allrounder after not making the world cup squad, you instantly lose 5 runs to the economy rate through relative expense.

But remember we are already sacrificing an average of 4 runs to Willey's batting. So the actual loss is now 9 runs. If we put Woakes up into 7, drop Moeen and Willey, and pick a specialist bowler who comes in at 11 and is hidden for his awful batting ability, hes hardly ever going to have to bat (as an example, Mark wood faces something ridiculous like 1 ball per ODI in over 55 ODIS on average, so your 11 hardly bats ever), but you are still elevating another inferior player to 7, so you still lose those runs scored on average.

So you need a player that makes up 4 runs on a 5.2 economy...... a player capable of 4.8.

Who in the modern day is managing that over any length of time for England? Zero people. If England have people capable of bowling even sub 5.4, let alone sub 4.8, they would be walking into the team anyway. List A figures in England for bowlers have become staggeringly expensive, hardly anyone gets near this capability.

You either need to replace him with a number seven capable of 5.2 econ rate to mirror him and a SR105, or for every run over 5.2 economy (Englands next best bowler to have played more than one series is 5.5) find a seven who adds that to his strike rate to gain parity.

So a 5.5 economy bowler at next best needs to ADD 3 runs to his batting to be Moeen.....an average of 23 in 18 balls, or 127SR.... which is actually larger than the best SR ever recorded in the game over any number of matches to form a proper career (as defined by cricinfos top SR ever).

Alviro Patterson wrote:Dawson coming at 8 won't weaken the batting, if anything it will enhance the bowling.


Dawsons gone for nearly 7 an over in his 3 games, and while his record in counties is exceptional on econ rates, his little exposure in the side didnt end well. He should get a run or a try out again, I dont want to write him off, but its asking a lot to expect him to improve the team
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