First Test. South Africa v England. Durban, 26-30 Dec.

[Arthur Crabtree]

The Kingsmead ground has been home to Test cricket since 1923, and is famous for the effect of the nearby Ocean on play, with occasional periods of humidity giving the game sudden swings and leaps forward on an otherwise placid pitch.

As in 1999 when England bowled out South Africa for 156, but, on following on, Gary Kirsten batted for nearly 15 hours to draw the game. The Kirsten innings irks me a little, as he massively exceeded Atherton's heroics at Jo'burg, but no England supporter ever mentions it. In the great series of 2004-5, England were bowled out for 139, but 570-7d (hundreds for Strauss, Trescothick and Thorpe) meant England had time to almost win the game, but for bad light.

Light, and electrical storms can be influential there.

Last time in Durban, hundreds for Cook and Bell, and wickets for Swann (nine) and Broad, saw England to a big win. Cook is the only remaining England batter to have played in a Test in South Africa. England have never lost in Durban and South Africa's record there is poor recently, only beating India in their last five Tests there.

Swann's wickets are a bit misleading. Pace bowlers do very well at Kingsmead, between the heavy scores. Steyn has a strike rate of 43. Sreesanth did well in a couple of games there. Skiddy swing bowlers are at the top, hit the pitch bowlers less prominent. Even so, in the last ten years, Jadeja, Warne and Herath have 5-fers. In normal conditions, everyone has to work for their rewards, but, unless there is a huge storm, there will be a result.

Note, Hashim Amla averages under 20 at this ground, and hasn't scored a ton. This was Jacques Kallis' ground.

Cricinfo is predicting these will be the two sides, with Anderson and Philander out:

South Africa: 1 Stiaan van Zyl, 2 Dean Elgar, 3 Hashim Amla, 4 Faf du Plessis, 5 AB de Villiers (wk), 6 Temba Bavuma, 7 JP Duminy, 8 Dale Steyn, 9 Dane Piedt, 10 Kyle Abbott, 11 Morne Morkel.

England: 1 Alastair Cook (capt), 2 Alex Hales, 3 Nick Compton, 4 Joe Root, 5 James Taylor, 6 Ben Stokes, 7 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 8 Moeen Ali, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 Chris Woakes, 11 Steven Finn.

If it's a bowling day, the toss will be crucial, and the weather looks cloudy and changeable on Saturday, but mostly dry afterwards. There should be a result. Some press are making England favourites, and their record at the ground, and South Africa's backs that up.

[mikesiva]

South Africa have been struggling to find an opening pair post-Graeme Smith....

[dan08]

Woakes at 10!

[m@tt]

Woakes at 10!

Think it's a mistake! Anderson would have been at 10 and they probably just switched names.

[Gingerfinch]

Is Woakes our best back up bowler or in for his batting?

[Arthur Crabtree]

He's not in for his batting. He's seen as the next best bowler. Which is absolutely justifiable based on his fc record. He's another though coming into the side without much expectation. But then Hoggy always got a lot of negativity, at least until 05, but had a fine career.

[Gingerfinch]

He's a bit like for like as well. I can see him batting ahead of Broad, though.

[Arthur Crabtree]

He could easily bat at seven, though not in that team. He'll bat ahead of Broad. Hope he does well and convinces a few. Seems like he could be happy as a leader, and has captained the Lions. He and Taylor could be important in that respect in the future.

[hopeforthebest]

I think in the past Woakes in his rare test appearances tended to try to hard to take wickets rather than concentrate of bowling consistently in good areas. Also both Jimmy and Broad were constantly in his ear with advice which i believe was a distraction. After all he's taken a lot of wickets in the CC using his own judgement so unless they see something, leave him to get on with it, Stokes, Wood etc were allowed to do so.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Yes, the press talk about 'the leader of the attack' like they should take the field in ceremonial heraldry. For me, there's no such thing. England never had a 'leader of the attack' until someone decided Anderson was one. The captain makes the plans, and if anyone else has anything to say, they can go through him. A bowler doesn't need two or three people coming to him with plans all the time.

[alfie]

Since Woakes has only played four Tests it is probably unnecessary to look for some external factor to blame for his relative shortage of wickets. He was only the fourth seamer in those matches anyway and a couple were on fairly flat wickets ; and I'd suggest he is a better bowler now. To expect him to completely make up for Anderson's absence is a bit of a stretch , but the likely conditions ought to suit him.
That is if they don't decide to annoy the press and pick Footitt instead

[backfootpunch]

i feel like woakes deserves a run in the side, his FC record is exceptional and he is someone who should be given a good opportunity

though being a warwickshire fan i am very biased

[Slipstream]

Yes, the press talk about 'the leader of the attack' like they should take the field in ceremonial heraldry. For me, there's no such thing. England never had a 'leader of the attack' until someone decided Anderson was one. The captain makes the plans, and if anyone else has anything to say, they can go through him. A bowler doesn't need two or three people coming to him with plans all the time.

Agree completely. Whoever is taking the most wickets is leading the attack. Sometimes it has been Broad leading the attack, sometimes Anderson and sometimes Finn or Swann.

[ianp1970]

Looks like we will have a more capable team than South Africa with 5 bowlers and Woakes at 9, but Amla, ABDV, Steyn and Morkel could easily win the match on their own!

[dan08]

Woakes confirmed to play.