alfie wrote:Clearly England took into account several factors : that the previous highest ever chase in Pakistan was 314 and no other had come close ; that a new ball would be available in the last hour of play ; that there would likely be a fairly significant period in which reverse swing would be effective during the last day - and came to the conclusion that the risk taken by an "early" close was outweighed by the chance of success
Using a uni variate analysis of 4th innings chases to determine a par score in this case would be a very misleading and foolhardy. The top score ever achieved might be 314, but two things about that stat render it somewhat null and void.
1. 48% of matches in Pakistan historically have been draws, which removes almost half of the data sample. Such a high draw rate also points strongly to how pitches do not break up late in games.
2. Pakistan hasnt hosted a single test in the two eras of cricket history that produce all most ALL of the highest 4th innings scores.
This can be further demonstrated by reality. 5 test match teams maintain a 4th innings wicket average in Pakistan higher than the top score achieved. Interestingly, the top two (Australia and India) in 14 combined innings in history, maintain a wicket average of nearly 50..... yet, only 2 of these matches lead to a result. India did not win a single game in 8 tests they batted last, despite averaging 48 a wicket. In fact, on pure data through all Pakistan games, 4th innings wicket averages are higher than the global all innings averages. You have more chance chasing 350 on a 5th day Pakistan pitch, than making 350 in any other venue in the world, in the 1st innings. What makes those figures even more crazy, is they do not include a single test match played in any of the 3-4 decades where test match scoring was at its historical highest. For their time, they are massive outliers.
You then ask, what about the venue in question? Rawalpindi has the highest wicket average out of all grounds currently in use to have hosted 10 tests. Its 5th all time out of all grounds - even without historical data, the pitch spoke for itself. It was a road.
Not interested in historical stats? Well in the only sample worthy of assessment since Pakistan started hosting tests again, in two matches in 2022 v Australia, Pakistan scored 282/0 on day 5 at Rawalpindi, and made 443/7 at Karachi, of which 5 wickets fell for 300 on day 5.
So whats that? 180 overs for 5 wickets at over 100 runs per wicket.... against the best ranked bowling line up in the world (4 of those that played are ranked in the top 15 test bowlers, including 1st overall).
And you are telling me the thought behind leaving less than 350 in 4 sessions was sensible and calculated?
Nope