Euro 2024

[sussexpob]

Euro 2024 is fast approaching, so I thought why not start a thread with a bit of a low down with the main sides in the tournament and a few predictions! So without further ado, lets jump in with the first team....

Germany

Ten years have now passed since that balmy night in Belo Horizonte when Germany stunned the football world. Faced with a Brazil team backed by a fanatical home crowd, and seemingly destined to make the final of a tournament at home, Germany instead dished out arguably the most shocking result in the history of football, pounding 5 goals in the space of the first 25 minutes, and then completing the rout in the second half to win 7-1. The result, if anything, flattered Brazil in a game where Germany started to look embarrassed and saved them from further embarrasment by backing off.

A week later, Mario Gotze slotted a neat finish deep into injury time, and Germany became world champions. As Germany celebrated its 4th WC title, the rest of the football world had to come to an uncomfortable realisation - Germany had won the tournament with a very young squad, 14 of its 23 players being 24 or under. And a glance around European football showed that exceptional young Germany talent was seemingly everywhere. The golden generation of Germany had only just been born, and was already champions. As the dust settled, predictions of decade long domination and a generationally brilliant side dominated. The rest of the football world scrambled to understand what Germany were doing, how they were breeding players. Everyone from Brazil, Spain to outer Mongolia wanted to copy them.

Rather than the start of dominance, that night in the Maracana would prove to be a false dawn. After winning the WC, Germany would go through its worst period in history.... twice finishing bottom of its world cup groups in 2018 and 2022, and twice being clearly outplayed and miles off the pace in the first knockout games they made in European Championships (by France and England). The golden generation fizzled out to disappointment.

Not much has gone right since Spain dumped Germany out of the Qatar WC either. Hans Flick had the honour of being the first national team coach to be sacked by Germany in 2023, after an embarrassing run of friendlies where Germany lost 6 times out of 9, all to second rate sides, and wins against Peru and a USA B team hardly give much encouragement. He has been replaced by Nagelsmann, the youngest coach ever to take charge of a Euro side at the tournament, and while they have turned it round with two wins in France and Holland, being hosts for the tournament has had one draw back - Germany have not played a competitive match since the disaster in the desert in 2022, and with a new coach, plenty of new players and a new system, it remains to be seen what will happen once they are tested.

The first question for Nagelsmann will be who to play, and how to get the best out of a talented, yet inferior side to some in the competition. Germany have often based their play on the footballing ability of Manuel Neuer to transition the ball quickly up the pitch, but the ageing legend is now 38 and has had a serious injury or two in recent times, and has made a string of errors this year. I expect Barcelona keeper Ter Stegen to start, which is still a solid base for Germany to build the team around.

In defence, there is both weakness and strength. The central core of Tah and Rudiger is solid, and both are coming off great seasons for their club, especially Rudiger who has developed into an elite CB at Real Madrid. backed by Schlotterbeck from Dortmund, who is a tackling machine, and a pair of competent CBs from Leipzig (Hiendrichs and Raum) they don't have any great problems here. We do, however, get into serious problems when we come to full back... the shortest way to put it is, they don't have any. Kimmich has in recent times had to fill in at RB, and Stuttgart's Max Mittelstadt on the left only debuted one match ago, and is there mostly as a horse for course pick, rather than any inate quality. After that, there is no other full time full back in the squad, and for a position that expends a lot of energy, it remains to be seen if the two picked can get through the tournament in one piece.

In midfield, we have similar situation. A core of ageing quality players meets inexperience. 4 players in the midfield were only capped recently, but in Toni Kroos and Iker Gundogan, there is 100s of caps worth of experience. Nagelsmann nevertheless has to make a decision on what system to play here... Kroos is set to retire after the tournament, and Gundogan is starting to show his age at 33 for Barcelona. With options further up the pitch, can Nagelsmann afford two ageing superstars to run that midfield battleground? Neither are truly defensive players or tacklers, so they might have to supplement in one of the less known players in to gain some balance. Playing both would leave them with quite a lightweight core off the ball... the most likely candidate, Andrich, was taken apart by the pace of Atalanta in the Europa League final, so Nagelsmann might not be that confident in playing him there. After that we have Brighton utility man Gross, who is great for his "jack of all trades, master of none" type offering for the squad, but do you really trust him in a big game against a top side? Fuhrich is too attack minded to play CM with the others, and Pavlovic has there I would imagine just for the experience, as hes 19 and hardly played a game for Bayern. Naglesmann not picking Goretzka is a big surprise.

In the final third, Germany do have undoubted quality. Leroy Sane offers the kind of burning pace that can kill a team that gives him space to attack, and that might be key for Germany in the later rounds (although there is some questionsa about his recent attitude and level of play at Bayern). Floran Wirtz is a big future hope for German football, and having watched him rip apart Union in Brussels last year, I am a fan. But there is still a certain rawness to his play, and his position as the AMC/10 is a really luxury, as in the 4-3-2-1 system you need some defending from the 10, which Wirtz doesn't really offer (he played best in the 3-5-2, classic 4-4-2 type Teddy Sheringham role).

The key player though will be Musiala. A resident of England for most of his youth, and who sadly refused a call up from Southgate before he choose his birth country, he is now the big star for Germany. The only problem is, once again where does Nagelsmann get the best out of him? As a winger, he can shuffle past defenders and attack into the box, but as the 10 in the centre he is equally adapt in finding pockets of space and being the creative focal point. Its a question that Bayern Munich have yet to work out, because he shifts between the two all the time (I would play him on the wing, with Wirtz in the centre). If Germany can get him enough of the ball, he will do even top sides damage.

Lastly, we come to forwards. Fullkrug has been an amazing find for Germany. Suddenly appearing seemingly from nowhere at around 30 years of age, he has been a great find for a nation that previously struggled to find a top striker to play around their great attacking midfielders. Fullkrug does strike me as a dangerous player; a good finisher, very strong, good in the air, but for a man his size he also has some pace and a great touch - just ask PSG, who he scored a wonderful goal displaying all of these in the CL semi final. After that Muller and Havertz add some depth, and on form Brighton loanee at Stuttgart, Deniz Undav, adds arguablly unnecessary depth.

Prediction - Home advantage always counts in major tournaments, so predicting where this good but not great side finish is especially tough. The crowd or the odd referee under pressure giving the home team a big decision could sway things Germany's way in a knockout game, and there are weapons in the side that can cause every team problems. Germany should walk through the group as winners, and a third placed side in the next round should be easily navigated, especially when it will come from a group with no stand out third team. But after that, we meet a problem.... if everything goes to expectation, Germany would then meet Spain in the QF. Can I see them beating a top tier side? No I cannot....not 2 or 3 times necessary to win the tournament. Maybe they get a bit of luck and make the semi... but I am going for Finish -Quarter-finals

Expected line up
Formation - 4-3-2-1

GK- Ter Stegen (Barcelona)
RB - Kimmich (Bayern)
LB - Mittelstadt (Stuttgart)
CB- Rudiger (Real Madrid)
CB - Tah (Leverkusen)
CM - Toni Kroos (No club - retiring)
CM - Andrich (Leverkusen)
LW - Musiala (Bayern)
RW - Sane (Bayern)
AM - Wirtz (Leverkusen)
CF - Fullkrug (Dortumund)

[mikesiva]

Very interesting, SP.

I'm really looking forward to seeing more of Wirtz.

[sussexpob]

France

Given the lack of time coaches have with their squads, interntional management is more about finding simple solutions that can be implemented successfully with the pieces at your disposal, than creating game re-defining tactical innovations. No one proves this rule more than Deschamps - a man whose pragmatic style of defence first, physical football might have him compared unfavourably to "parking the bus" types like Sam Allerdyce, but who in the international game has created a repeatable model for success for France.

Deschamps approach is simple; flood the centre of the pitch with physical, energetic ball winners who turn the midfield into a chaotic battlezone and make it difficult for teams to get any platform to attack. Bolt your defence behind this to form an almost impenetrable defensive line... then when the opposition coughs up possession, transition quickly and directly to the final third where they either knock it forward the centre forward, or knock it out wide when the wingers have space.

From an offensive point of view, the tactic really shouldn't work as well as it does, but France have a couple of jokers up their sleeve; the first, Mbappe, at his very best is the equal of any player to have played in my lifetime, and given any kind of space, his pace, dribbling, power and creative vision will rip teams apart. The second, Giroud, is as good a player you will find in the modern game when playing with his back to goal and bringing his wingers into good positions. From these two abilities, France create so many problems for opposition defenders without necessarily having to commit numbers forward. 3 International finals since 2016, including a WC win in 2018, show how well this has worked for them.

This time around though, a few cracks have started to appear in team. The main problem is a complete lack of creative ability in the central midfield positions. Paul Pogba was terrible at United, but under Deschamps his abiltiy to play his part in the physical battle in the midfield while retaining quality on the ball as the main creative output on transitions was something France have never replaced. Kante alongside him at his peak was among the best DMs ever to play the game, and also had ability on the ball that was rare (he will be there, but hes declined significantly). France no longer have dual threat type skills in these roles, and it interfers with their ability to bring the forward line into the game more. Other than that, France no longer have a goal keeper with any experience or standout quality, and 2/3rds of their key players in attack (Giroud and Greizmann) are now at the very end of their careers and are certainly not the same players they were, esepcially Grezimann who at his peak was a quick, dynamic forward with brilliant ability to play off the shoulder of a defender and beat him to the ball.

Deschamps has tried to scheme his way round this weakness by adapting his style. In recent times, he has tried to mould the now less rapid Griezmann into an advanced playmaker who sits behind iroud as the focal point for the midfield to play into, sacrificing one of his conventional CM/DMs to push a man further up. Greizmann is a quality player, and the odd scintilating through ball comes and goes, but its proven to have had mixed results on a whole, and Deschamps now flicks between tactics on a given day not really settled with one. Griezmann after all is not a specialist in the role, so it remains to be seen if he can fulfill it if required (given time, he certainly has the ability). Nevertheless, replacing a now geriatric Giroud has been more difficult, and the main contendor (Thuram) has rollercoasted in quality as much as his persona on the field does (the guy is a total lunatic, notoriously bad dressing room presence, and rolls between controversies off the field). Lastly, Lucas Hernandez picking up a ACL in the Dortmund game is a big blow further back.

In the end though, as with the past, France's success really comes down to one man... the one and only, Kylian Mbappe. I think its fair to say that Mbappe is a complex character, and a person who is very hard to suss out. Naturally, he seems to be a shy, mild mannered man with not a lot to say and a default to being cool and calm headed - but he has become such a polarised, criticised figure in France, he reacts to that (often unfair) criticism by becoming the person the press have dreamed up; more often as time has gone on, we see the arrogance, spiky, critial presence in the way he talks, and his action off the field increasingly become more and more erratic and toxic. (I leave you to decide why you think a black kid from the rough end of Paris might be targeted for unfair critcism from the press when others arent, as its not the point of this article..... ) . This off-field funk has never been a problem until recently. In previous years when it appeared he was sick of Paris, and wanted to go to Spain, he nevertheless still produced on the field; but in more recent times, its morphed somewhat into a negative spiral of ever increasing problems. Mbappe wants to leave, Mbappe gets slagged off in the press for being a Judas, Mbappe responds negatively to the criticism, press write more sensationalist stuff, Mbappe responds more strongly, press right more, Mbappe responds looking more and more disinterested on the field.... you get the picture.

By the end of the season, he had been dropped by PSG from the squad. When he did play, save for when PSG knocked 7 past a hapless Montepellier side, the old sharpness was not there. In the Champions League semi-final v Dortmund, he cut an increasingly frustrated figure, unable to flick up the gears as he usual does. He missed chances, miscontrolled the ball, and become more and more frustrated - the vicious cycle continued.

Prediction - Mbappe's newly penned Real Madrid contract should bring him into the tournament in a better mood, having finally bust out of Paris. While there has been problems in Paris, these have never really transferred to his attitude playing for the national team, where he has always left nothing on the pitch. France have the best back 4 in the tournament, the best striker, and a core in midfield that is solid. They also have international pedigree and experience at going the distance, and one of the better managers at this level of football. Negatives stated above aside, their run is also relatively easy to the semi-final, where a not so good Belgium team are probably their only threat in the 2nd/QF round. If all goes as the bookies odds propose, that sets up a France v England semi-final tie that is a coin flip type game, and a replay of a game England probably deserved to win last time. And for that reason I am saying - Semi finalist

Expected line up (highly changeable)
4-2-3-1-1

GK- Areloa
RB - Pavard
LB- Theo Hernandez
CB - Upamecano
CB - Saliba
DM - Tchouameni
DM - Rabiot
AM - Griezmann
LW - Mbappe
RW - Kolo Muani
CF - Giroud

[sussexpob]

Might as well rattled a few off... so..

[mikesiva]

IMHO the DM position is crucial, and neither of those two candidates measure up to Kante at his best.

That could prevent France from reaching another final.

[sussexpob]

IMHO the DM position is crucial, and neither of those two candidates measure up to Kante at his best.

That could prevent France from reaching another final.

Indeed, as I highlighted in the post I think Kante's decline and Pogba being banned rob France of some extra all-round quality, as both the Real Madrid lads that could play have to have someone like Bellingham or Valverde with them to add a bit of creativity on the ball, as they are just blocker type DMs. So they will be weaker, no doubt. Kante is one of the most underrated players in history, he was for a period of years just unbelievably brilliant, and he was a great passer too.

[sussexpob]

England

It is said that Napoleon, on seeing the British Heavy Cavalry charge for the first time at the Battle of Waterloo, remarked to his Chief of Staff that "these men on grey horses are terrifying"'; his number two, having fought the British in Spain many times before nonchalantly responded that "they are the best Cavalry in the world, but they are the worst lead". True to form, the British horseman first shattered a Corp of French infantry into retreat, then with screams of "next stop, Paris", proceeded to launch a suicidal and spontaneous counter attack where they were cut down in their droves.

If all goes to prediction, one could imagine in the next few weeks another world conquering Frenchman peering out at his English opposition, and being similarly terrified, while also being comforted by the fact that they are often not the sum of their parts. In International football, it is rare to have a collection of talent that England have assembled in their squad. Like those Calvary from a bygone era though, there is one problem - England so often find in the key moments of tournaments that the talent in their team is only as good as their deficit in the quality of leadership. Three times in the last major tournaments, they have found themselves against a superior tactician, and three times that has not been enough to turn a tight affair against them.

The biggest thing stopping England ending their major tournament drought is Gareth Southgate. Blessed with a squad that has left XI players at home that could themselves form a starting line up capable of winning the tournament, no coach has arguably ever had a better position to win something. The sad irony for England is, leading this team into battle is a man that has continually failed to blend his embarrassment of riches into a cohesive form of football, and who has continually shown his inability to be pragmatic when the situation calls for it in tight matches. Aside from the hapless Graham Taylor, any England manager in my lifetime would be far more qualified and far more gifted to bring success to this team.

The Croatia game will forever live in memory. England took the lead, Croatia rocked. Rather than go in for the kill in a game England were firmly ahead in, and against a team that was mostly 2-3 very good players and a load of middle of the road dross, Southgate instead put everyone back on the goal line and allowed one of the most gifted playmakers to have ever played infinite space and time to weave his magic. Modric didn't need a second invitation, and with England static and defending on their own goal line, he sprayed the ball around and turned the match.

The real key is that England's tactics that day, which would be repeated again vs Italy a couple of years later, were totally passive. It says a lot about Southgate's limitations as a manager, that he believed in order to defend a 1-0 lead, you simply retreated backwards and took up a very deep backline. The full backs and wingers, sat a few meters from their goal line, continually allowed Croatia to play infront and cross into the box uncontested. The midfield hung to the edge of the box not pressing, and allowing Croatia free reign to move the ball 25 yards to the England goal everytime they got it. When they won the ball, they launched it forward to an isolated striker, which just gave the ball back. Faced with the continual, uncontested bombardment, their defence gave way... twice. I imagine in the prestigious footballing schools like La Mestia, they would have lessons based on Southgate's defensive approach from that match as the golden standard of how not to play the game 1-0 up. Static, completely submissive, uninterested in counter attacking, and giving up territory at points in the pitch that allowed Croatia to mount dangerous balls in the box. And it was repeated against Italy.

One would hope that, given their talent and working with brilliant tactical managers in the PL and La Liga/Bundesliga, England's players might overcome these tactical errors by working it out themselves. Its hard to overstate just how good England should be on the ball in this tournament. Declan Rice has transformed at Arsenal to a World Class defensive midfielder with a great all-round game. Bellingham has taken La Liga by storm and is now accepted, at only 20-21 years old, to arguably be the best player on the planet and a bad injury from being a generational great. Foden was the best player in the PL last year. Kane is the best 9 in world football now. Saka is world class. And thats before you take Palmer, Gordon, Bowen and all the others coming off great seasons. If these players gel at any point, they could give a real hiding to even the best teams. Whereas in previous tournaments Rice was slow on the ball, he is now under Arteta an important cog in developing play, which brings everyone else into the game. There is no weakness from the midfield to Striker... its all world class talent that is on form.

The defence is, however, weak in parts and lacks some depth. Luke Shaw is coming in cold, Trippier has been terrible at some points this season.... these are players who have performed better for England in the past, we need it again. Maguire missing it is no concern, but it does leave us slightly vulnerable.... none of the other CB partnerships have ever played together, so it might take the odd mistake early on for them to develop understanding. But really, the weakness in defence should be made up by the fact teams shouldn't be seeing much of the ball against us. A midfield of Bellingham and Rice should dominate anyone.

Prediction - Anything other than winning will feel like a disappointment. No other side has this much quality in the business areas of the pitch, and with plenty of options to call on if necessary when a goal down. It feels like it is time, doesn't it? Is any other side better than us? The bookies say not, and I say not .... Winners

Expected line up
4-2-3-1

GK- Pickford
RB- Walker
CB- Konza
CB- Stones
LB - Shaw
CM - Bellingham
DM- Rice
AM- Foden
LW - Gordon
RW- Saka
CF -Kane

[bigfluffylemon]

Opta has us as favourites too.

I think you're being pretty generous to Steve McLaren if you think Taylor is the only manager of the last 40 years worse than Southgate...

[Gingerfinch]

Not sure Southgate will be that brave and play Bellngham and Foden in Midfield. I can see possibly Gallagher next to Rice, with Bellingham ahead. Foden then starts on the left.

[sussexpob]

Not sure Southgate will be that brave and play Bellngham and Foden in Midfield. I can see possibly Gallagher next to Rice, with Bellingham ahead. Foden then starts on the left.

Foden played in behind Haaland all season and won player of the league, so it would be stupid to move him out wide. That triangle of Rice, Bello and Foden works without playing either out of their normal position... it just works.

Gallagher is nowhere near as good as the others, so why drop one of our many wide options who are better just to accommodate him?

[sussexpob]

I think you're being pretty generous to Steve McLaren if you think Taylor is the only manager of the last 40 years worse than Southgate...

International management is a lot about the luck you are handed at the time you manage. McClaren had Aaron Lennon, Gareth Barry, Shaun Wright Phillips and Owen after two consecutive near career ending injuries.... Southgate has Kane, Foden, Saka and Bellingham. England current B team, aside from 3 odd players from that McClaren team, who would start for England back then. Even guys like Jack Grealish would walk into that team, and they arent good enough to get into a 26 man squad.

That period of 2006-2010 and then 2014 to 2016, England were pretty bad. We were joint favourites for the last WC and favourites for this tournament.... that was never true in the past. Even England's previous peak, for the 2002, they were not favourites. You had teams like Brazil with the 3 R's that were considered miles ahead (and who knocked out England than won the WC).

Let's just compare the two in the best way possible....

McClaren took Middlesbrough to their best finish in 100 years, won them their only trophy, took them to a European final, and left them after several years of mid-table safety with never a threat of relegation.

Southgate took over the same squad and relegated them, after they had spent a lot of money that summer to boost the team. Its not really comparable, is it?

McClaren is described by the most succesful manager in English history as being a revolutionary and credits him with many coaching innovations that brought the club into the modern age. His time at United was their peak, they won the league every year he was there and also won the first treble in English history....

Southgate has relegated the only club he took charge of.

I know which I would hire

[Gingerfinch]

Not sure Southgate will be that brave and play Bellngham and Foden in Midfield. I can see possibly Gallagher next to Rice, with Bellingham ahead. Foden then starts on the left.

Foden played in behind Haaland all season and won player of the league, so it would be stupid to move him out wide. That triangle of Rice, Bello and Foden works without playing either out of their normal position... it just works.

Gallagher is nowhere near as good as the others, so why drop one of our many wide options who are better just to accommodate him?

Bellingham has played as a false 9 all season so why drop him back?

[sussexpob]

Bellingham has played as a false 9 all season so why drop him back?

He plays the opposite role to the false 9, because Vini and Rodrygo play as the two CFs who drop into space out wide when they see fit with Bellingham driving forward to overlap... the false 9 role is the player who drops deep, so if anything its the two Brazilians playing that. I would say hes like an attacking 10 with licence to get as forward as he wants, and yes... that does mean that on the counter the 4-3-1-2 becomes a classic 4-3-3 type scenario with Bellingham being the 9 on many occasions.

Its a simple question of efficiency. Foden and Bellingham are world class 10s at the top of their game, and both have bagged plenty of goals this year. Bellingham is also a world class 8, so I see no reason why you play him at 10, move Foden out to where he hasnt played a lot recently, just to accommodate an inferior player.

Of course, its entirely likely that Southgate goes for a different plan..... Cole Palmer at 10, Bellingham at 8, Foden on the left.... that would also not surprise me. But playing Gallagher in the CM is going to mean dropping someone better, just to accommodate a player who is worse in that role than other options, just to move Bellingham into a spot where you have the PL player of the year.

To me that really doesnt make sense.

[Gingerfinch]

I’d play both but as I said, will Southgate be brave?

[Gingerfinch]

Sounds like Trent will start alongside Rice, which will push Bellingham further forward.