by st_brendy » Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:06 pm
Heading into the final week of group games:
NORTH GROUP
An important game-in-hand match between Birmingham and Northants. A Birmingham win secures home QFs for themselves and Worcs (both already having secured top four finishes), whilst leaving Northants sweating slightly on a top four place. A Northants win sends them into the QFs, and with a chance of snatching a home QF ahead of either Birmingham or Worcs.
Two days later, Lancs and Notts join the equation. It will either be a straight shoot-out between them for 4th place (Lancs play Worcs, whilst Notts play Leiceseter - Lancs have a comfortable NRR advantage over Notts, so have qualification in their own hands), or a three way fight for 3rd and 4th if Northants lose the above match vs Birmingham. Northants play Durham.
Durham, Leices, Yorks and Derby are all out.
SOUTH GROUP
Kent have won the group. Home QF in the bag. Nevertheless, they don't want to be going into the QFs on the back of two successive defeats.
Somerset and Middlesex are out.
Now the difficult stuff.
If Sussex beat Surrey, they qualify (and get a home QF at the same time). If Gloucs lose to Glamorgan, they are out. If Surrey lose twice (or lose once and have a tie or rain-off in their other match), they are out. Anything else involving Sussex, Surrey, Gloucs, Glamorgan, Hants and Essex is possible.
Sussex, Essex, Hants and Surrey have qualification, effectively, in their own hands. Glamorgan and Gloucs require assistance from others.
Sussex - If they lose to Surrey, they will have to rely on other teams to slip up. They would need two out of Essex, Hants, Glamorgan and Surrey (in their first game) to also lose. As I say, if they win then they qualify.
Essex - If they beat Kent, they will almost certainly qualify because Surrey play Sussex, and Glamorgan's NRR is far, far weaker than Essex's. They would be certain of finishing above Surrey or Sussex, and Glamorgan would need a miracle. Even Hants would need a small NRR miracle to overtake them. If they lose to Kent though, either Glamorgan or Gloucs will overtake them. In that case Essex will need Hants to lose, and Surrey to lose at least once.
Hants - Because Sussex play Surrey, Hants are guaranteed to finish above at least one of those two with a win against Somerset. Realistically, such a Hants win would also result in them finishing above Glamorgan too, due to Glamorgan's poor NRR. So regardless of what Essex do, and what the results are in the Sussex-Surrey and Gloucs-Glamorgan head-to-heads, a Hants win against Somerset effectively secures qualification. But on the flip side, because of those same match-ups (and Essex's superior NRR at present) a Hants defeat against Somerset knocks them out.
Glamorgan - If they beat Gloucs, they will qualify if Hants or Essex lose - again given that Surrey and Sussex play each other. If they lose to Gloucs, they are 99% out. Gloucs would overtake them, and Glamorgan's NRR would do the rest even if Hants, Essex and Surrey all lose themselves too.
Gloucs - They have to beat Glamorgan. They also then need two of Essex, Hants and Surrey to lose.
Surrey - If they win both games, then they will be certain of a top five finish. And it will probably be a top four finish given that their NRR is superior to Hants'. A loss for Hants or Essex would just absolutely cement Surrey's qualification. If they win just one game, then they will need Hants to lose and Gloucs to beat Glamorgan - but at the same time, jump above Gloucs' NRR. Not an easy task if Gloucs are winning their match, and Surrey are losing one of their two matches. Or alternatively, they would also need Essex to lose and for their NRR to jump above Essex's. And as I say, if they lose both games then they are out.
Phew!
The bizarre thing in all of this is that Surrey are down in 7th and yet probably have qualification completely in their own hands. And at the same time, Sussex are sitting up in 2nd but facing a crunch qualification decider.
2012 F1 prediction guru
2011 F1 prediction guru
2014 Prem final placings prediction guru
Thanks for everything Pothas. You'll be missed. My nickname for you was apt and I will never forget it. For the last time, arise Sir Nic.